South |
West |
North |
East |
| |
|
|
Pass |
1 |
Pass |
2 |
2 |
4 |
Pass |
Pass |
Pass |
Pass |
Pass |
|
|
Contract: 4.
The opening lead is the 
K.
West continues with the diamond queen and then a third diamond to
East’s ace. East shifts to a spade. Should you finesse?
If there we’re no place to get rid of the Q,
of course you would finesse. But you have a great chance to establish
at least one of dummy’s clubs for a spade discard. If clubs
break 3-3 (36%) or 4-2 (48%), you can establish a club for a spade
pitch. An 84% (36+48) is better than a 50% chance.
Win the A,
play the 
AK
and ruff a club high. If clubs break 3-3, draw trumps ending in dummy
and pitch the Q
on a club. If clubs turn out to be 4-2, enter dummy with a trump,
ruff another club high. Draw trumps ending in dummy, and once again
discard Q,
on dummy’s fifth club. If the odds, entries, and time are on
your side, go for long suit establishment rather than finessing. In
an ideal world, you have time to try and develop your long suit, and
failing that, take a finesse. However, if you have to make an early
decision, fall back on simple percentages.
